Examining the potential contributions of extreme “Western V” sea surface temperatures to the 2017 March–June East African drought

American Meteorological Society

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Abstract: During March–June (MAMJ) 2017 East Africa (EA; 35°–50°E, 12°S–9°N) experienced an extensive drought across Tanzania, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia that contributed to extreme food insecurity (Funk et al. 2018, hereafter F18) approaching near-famine conditions (FEWSNET 2017a; FSNAU 2017). Effective forecasts, monitoring, and mitigation by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Predictions and Applications Centre and international partners (FEWSNET 2017a) motivated effective humanitarian responses. When the 2017 MAMJ rains failed, humanitarian assistance was already arriving, stabilizing food prices (FEWSNET 2017b). Climate simulations indicate (F18) that strong El Niños may often be followed by exceptional warming in the western Pacific, creating the potential for northeastern Ethiopian/southern African droughts followed by La Niña–like dry conditions during October–December and MAMJ in eastern EA, as in 1999–2001, 2010/11, and 2016/17. While 2016 October– December precipitation deficits do not appear to be significantly influenced by climate change (Uhe et al. 2018), prior research finds that human influence increased the probability of drought during the last severe drought in 2011 (Lott et al. 2013).