Methane Mitigation From The Dairy Sector In Kenyaâ??S Nationally Determined Contribution (Ndc)
Climate & Clean Air Coalition (CCAC)
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Abstract: In the next 30 years Kenya is expected to face unprecedented growth in the demand for food as both the economy and population grow; GDP per-capita is projected to increase over fivefold,while the population is expected to more than double from 46 million to roughly 96 million (FAO,2019b). The agricultural sector has been identified as key in contributing to Kenyaâ??s economic growth (FAO and NZAGRC,2017). As a result,the development of the sector in response to increases in demand,is fundamental in supporting the countryâ??s sustainable development. Over recent years,agricultural productivity has not increased despite population growth (USAID,2021). The productivity of the sector is bounded by institutional and economic,as well as agro-ecological factors (FAO,2019a). Only approximately 20 percent of Kenyaâ??s total agricultural land area is arable,while 80 percent is classified as arid or semi-arid land (ASAL)(ibid.). While the agriculture sector is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,it is also a leading source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,accounting for up to 40 percent of national emissions in 2015 (Government of Kenya,2020). The vast proportion of these emissions are from the livestock sub-sector,which contributes 90 percent of total emissions from agriculture (FAO and NZAGRC,2017). Dairy cattle in particular are responsible for approximately 12.3 million tonnes CO2e,88 percent of which takes the form of methane produced enterically (ibid.). Methane is a short-lived climate pollutant with a high global warming potential and atmospheric lifetime of approximately 12 years. Interventions that mitigate methane emissions from livestock in Kenya will have multiple benefits. Curbing emissions will not only reduce Kenyaâ??s contribution to near term warming but will also play a key role in Kenyaâ??s transition to a lowcarbon,climate-resilient economy,helping to achieve food security and economic growth.