Statement from the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF69)
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)
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Abstract: This official statement presents the consensus-based seasonal climate forecast for the March?May (MAM) 2025 rainfall period across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The outlook anticipates drier-than-normal conditions over much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and parts of South Sudan and Uganda, with elevated drought risk in cross-border areas including the Ethiopia?Kenya?Somalia nexus. Conversely, wetter conditions are expected in parts of Tanzania, South Sudan, and southwestern Ethiopia. The report includes probabilistic rainfall and temperature forecasts, predicted rainfall onset timing, and the identification of analogue years (2016/17 and 2020/21) resembling current sea surface temperature (SST) conditions. It was developed collaboratively by IGAD Member States' National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and global producing centres. Methodology notes cover calibration techniques and regional climate drivers such as ENSO and IOD. The document supports preparedness by mapping regional climate hazards and guiding sectoral mitigation actions.