Droughts, Migration And Population In Kenya

Paris School of Economics (PSE)

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Abstract: This paper analyzes demographic shifts in Kenya caused by recurrent droughts, using census data and CHIRPS rainfall records from 1989?2009. It applies fixed-effects modeling across 2,500+ sublocations to link drought frequency to population reduction, particularly in pastoralist areas. Each drought leads to a 1.7 percentage point drop in population growth. Migration behavior varies by livelihood: herders relocate entire households, while agriculturalists show selective migration. The study underscores drought?s differential impacts and offers granular evidence for policy design in climate-mobility planning.